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Profile: eva pattern

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Country: United States

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Total Posts: 11

Join Date: Tuesday, April 09, 2019 1:47 AM

Date Of Birth: Thursday, March 03, 1988

Topic: But what are they? And what do they represent?

What are stock indices?

You may have already heard of stock indices such as the FTSE 100, the Dow Jones or the Nikkei 225. Numbers often quoted on the news, or in the business section of the newspaper, usually alongside a value saying how much they've moved up or down.

A stock index is a measurement of value of a certain section of the stock market.

This 'certain section of the stock market' can be:

one

An exchange (like the Tokyo Stock Exchange or NASDAQ)

two

A region (such as Europe or Asia)

three

Or a sector (energy, electronics, property, etc)

The FTSE 100 for example, is a number representing the largest 100 companies traded on the London Stock Exchange.

FTSE 100

If, on average, the share price of these companies goes up, then the FTSE 100 will rise with them. And if the share prices fall, it will drop.

Why are they important?

Stock indices give traders and investors an indication of how an exchange, region or sector is performing.

The ASX 200 for example, tracks the performance of 200 of the largest companies in Australia. If the ASX 200 starts to rise, then on average these companies are performing well. A rising ASX 200 tells investors that, generally, the state of the Australian stock market is improving.

ASX 200

And if the Australian stock market is on the up, then more often than not, the entire Aussie economy tends to be doing well. So, movements in the price of major stock indices can often give traders an indication as to the health of an entire country.

That's important information when planning your next trade.

What are the major stock indices?

Most nations have one major stock index that represents the largest companies in that country. For example:

FTSE 100 UK

DAX Germany

CAC 40 France

IBEX 35 Spain

FTSE MIB Italy

Nikkei 225 Japan

Hang Seng Hong Kong

ASX 200 Australia

TSX 60 Canada

However, in the US there are several major indices, all based on slightly different sections of the market. The three main US indices are:

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)

DJIA

One of the oldest and most quoted indices, the Dow Jones Industrial Average represents 30 of the most influential companies in the US. It was first calculated in 1896 and historically was made up of firms involved in heavy industry. Nowadays this association has been all but lost.

S&P 500

SP 500

More diverse than DJIA, the S&P 500 is based on the value of 500 of the largest US shares listed on either the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) or NASDAQ. It was first used in its current form in the 1950s and today represents around 70% of the total value the US stock market.

NASDAQ-100

Nasdaq

Established in 1985, the NASDAQ 100 is based on 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the NASDAQ exchange in New York City. It represents firms across a number of sectors, but in particular computing, telecommunications and biotechnology.

Lesson summary

A stock index is a measurement of value of a certain section of the stock market

Major stock indices can give an indication as to the health of the equity market (and sometimes the economy) of a particular country or region

Most nations have one major index. The US has three: the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100

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What are stock indices?

Posted: Tuesday, September 03, 2019 6:56 PM

Topic: Rising Wedge

Rising Wedge

The Rising Wedge is a bearish pattern that begins wide at the bottom and contracts as prices move higher and the trading range narrows. In contrast to symmetrical triangles, which have no definitive slope and no bullish or bearish bias, rising wedges definitely slope up and have a bearish bias.

While though this article will focus on the rising wedge as a reversal pattern, the pattern can also fit into the continuation category. As a continuation pattern, the rising wedge will still slope up, but the slope will be against the prevailing downtrend. As a reversal pattern, the rising wedge will slope up and with the prevailing trend. Regardless of the type (reversal or continuation), rising wedges are bearish.

Prior Trend: In order to qualify as a reversal pattern, there must be a prior trend to reverse. The rising wedge usually forms over a 3-6 month period and can mark an intermediate or long-term trend reversal. Sometimes the current trend is totally contained within the rising wedge; other times the pattern will form after an extended advance.

Upper Resistance Line: It takes at least two reaction highs to form the upper resistance line, ideally three. Each reaction high should be higher than the previous high.

Lower Support Line: At least two reaction lows are required to form the lower support line. Each reaction low should be higher than the previous low.

Contraction: The upper resistance line and lower support line converge as the pattern matures. The advances from the reaction lows (lower support line) become shorter and shorter, which makes the rallies unconvincing. This creates an upper resistance line that fails to keep pace with the slope of the lower support line and indicates a supply overhang as prices increase.

Support Break: Bearish confirmation of the pattern does not come until the support line is broken in a convincing fashion. It is sometimes prudent to wait for a break of the previous reaction low. Once support is broken, there can sometimes be a reaction rally to test the newfound resistance level.

Volume: Ideally, volume will decline as prices rise and the wedge evolves. An expansion of volume on the support line break can be taken as bearish confirmation.

The rising wedge can be one of the most difficult chart patterns to accurately recognize and trade. While it is a consolidation formation, the loss of upside momentum on each successive high gives the pattern its bearish bias. However, the series of higher highs and higher lows keeps the trend inherently bullish. The final break of support indicates that the forces of supply have finally won out and lower prices are likely. There are no measuring techniques to estimate the decline – other aspects of technical analysis should be employed to forecast price targets.

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Posted: Sunday, June 02, 2019 4:45 AM

Topic: Head and Shoulders Bottom

Head and Shoulders Bottom

The Head and Shoulders Bottom, sometimes referred to as an Inverse Head and Shoulders, is a reversal pattern that shares many common characteristics with the Head and Shoulders Top, but relies more heavily on volume patterns for confirmation.

As a major reversal pattern, the Head and Shoulders Bottom forms after a downtrend, with its completion marking a change in trend. The pattern contains three successive troughs with the middle trough (head) being the deepest and the two outside troughs (shoulders) being shallower. Ideally, the two shoulders would be equal in height and width. The reaction highs in the middle of the pattern can be connected to form resistance, or a neckline.

The price action that forms the Head and Shoulders Bottom is roughly the same as that which forms the Head and Shoulders Top, but reversed. The role of volume marks the biggest difference between the two. Generally speaking, volume plays a larger role in bottom formations than top formations. While an increase in volume on the neckline breakout for a Head and Shoulders Top is welcomed, it is absolutely required for a bottom. We will look at each part of the pattern individually, keeping volume in mind, and then put the parts together with some examples.

Prior Trend: It is important to establish the existence of a prior downtrend for this to be a reversal pattern. Without a prior downtrend to reverse, there cannot be a Head and Shoulders Bottom formation.

Left Shoulder: While in a downtrend, the left shoulder forms a trough that marks a new reaction low in the current trend. After forming this trough, an advance ensues to complete the formation of the left shoulder (1). The high of the decline usually remains below any longer trend line, thus keeping the downtrend intact.

Head: From the high of the left shoulder, a decline begins that exceeds the previous low and forms the low point of the head. After making a bottom, the high of the subsequent advance forms the second point of the neckline (2). The high of the advance sometimes breaks a downtrend line, which calls into question the robustness of the downtrend.

Right Shoulder: The decline from the high of the head (neckline) begins to form the right shoulder. This low is always higher than the head, and it is usually in line with the low of the left shoulder. While symmetry is preferred, sometimes the shoulders can be out of whack, and the right shoulder will be higher, lower, wider, or narrower. When the advance from the low of the right shoulder breaks the neckline, the Head and Shoulders Bottom reversal is complete.

Neckline: The neckline forms by connecting reaction highs 1 and 2. Reaction High 1 marks the end of the left shoulder and the beginning of the head. Reaction High 2 marks the end of the head and the beginning of the right shoulder. Depending on the relationship between the two reaction highs, the neckline can slope up, slope down, or be horizontal. The slope of the neckline will affect the pattern's degree of bullishness: an upward slope is more bullish than a downward slope.

Volume: While volume plays an important role in the Head and Shoulders Top, it plays a crucial role in the Head and Shoulders Bottom. Without the proper expansion of volume, the validity of any breakout becomes suspect. Volume can be measured as an indicator (OBV, Chaikin Money Flow) or simply by analyzing the absolute levels associated with each peak and trough.

Volume levels during the first half of the pattern are less important than in the second half. Volume on the decline of the left shoulder is usually pretty heavy and selling pressure quite intense. The intensity of selling can even continue during the decline that forms the low of the head. After this low, subsequent volume patterns should be watched carefully to look for expansion during the advances.

The advance from the low of the head should show an increase in volume and/or better indicator readings, e.g., CMF > 0 or rise in OBV. After the reaction high forms the second neckline point, the right shoulder's decline should be accompanied with light volume. It is normal to experience profit-taking after an advance. Volume analysis helps distinguish between normal profit-taking and heavy selling pressure. With light volume on the pullback, indicators like CMF and OBV should remain strong. The most important moment for volume occurs on the advance from the low of the right shoulder. For a breakout to be considered valid, there needs to be an expansion of volume on the advance and during the breakout.

Neckline Break: The Head and Shoulders Bottom pattern is not complete (and the downtrend is not reversed) until neckline resistance is broken. For a Head and Shoulders Bottom, this must occur in a convincing manner, with an expansion of volume.

Resistance Turned Support: Once resistance is broken, it is common for this same resistance

Posted: Wednesday, May 29, 2019 4:31 AM

Topic: Rectangle pattern

Rectangle pattern

A Rectangle is a continuation pattern that forms as a trading range during a pause in the trend. The pattern is easily identifiable by two comparable highs and two comparable lows. The highs and lows can be connected to form two parallel lines that make up the top and bottom of a rectangle. Rectangles are sometimes referred to as trading ranges, consolidation zones or congestion areas.

There are many similarities between the rectangle and the symmetrical triangle. While both are usually continuation patterns, they can also mark trend significant tops and bottoms. As with the symmetrical triangle, the rectangle pattern is not complete until a breakout has occurred. Sometimes clues can be found, but the direction of the breakout is usually not determinable beforehand. We will examine each part of the rectangle and then provide an example with MU.

Trend: To qualify as a continuation pattern, a prior trend should exist. Ideally, the trend should be a few months old and not too mature. The more mature the trend, the less chance that the pattern marks a continuation.

Four (4) Points: At least two equivalent reaction highs are required to form the upper resistance line and two equivalent reaction lows to form the lower support line. They do not have to be exactly equal, but should be within a reasonable proximity. Although not a prerequisite, it is preferable that the highs and lows alternate.

Volume: As opposed to the symmetrical triangle, rectangles do not exhibit standard volume patterns. Sometimes volume will decline as the pattern develops. Other times, volume will gyrate as the prices bounce between support and resistance. Volume will rarely increase as the pattern matures. If volume declines, it is best to look for an expansion on the breakout for confirmation. If volume gyrates, it is best to assess which movements (advances to resistance or declines to support) are receiving the most volume. This type of volume assessment could offer an indication on the direction of the future breakout.

Duration: Rectangles can extend for a few weeks or many months. If the pattern is less than 3 weeks, it is usually considered a flag, also a continuation pattern. Ideally, rectangles will develop over a 3-month period. Generally, the longer the pattern, the more significant the breakout. A 3-month pattern might be expected to fulfill its breakout projection. However, a 6-month pattern might be expected to exceed its breakout target.

Breakout Direction: The direction of the next significant move can only be determined after the breakout has occurred. As with the symmetrical triangle, rectangles are neutral patterns that are dependent on the direction of the future breakout. Volume patterns can sometimes offer clues, but there is no confirmation until an actual break above resistance or break below support.

Breakout Confirmation: For a breakout to be considered valid, it should be on a closing basis. Some traders apply a filter to price (3%), time (3 days) or volume (expansion) for confirmation.

Return to Breakout: A basic tenet of technical analysis is that broken support turns into potential resistance and vice versa. After a break above resistance (below support), there is sometimes a return to test this newfound support level (resistance level). (For more detail, see our ChartSchool article on support and resistance.) A return to or near the original breakout level can offer a second chance to participate.

Target: The estimated move is found by measuring the height of the rectangle and applying it to the breakout.

Rectangles represent a trading range that pits the bulls against the bears. As the price nears support, buyers step in and push the price higher. As the price nears resistance, bears take over and force the price lower. Nimble traders sometimes play these bounces by buying near support and selling near resistance. One group (bulls or bears) will exhaust itself and a winner will emerge when there is a breakout. Again, it is important to remember that rectangles have a neutral bias. Even though clues can sometimes be gleaned from volume patterns, the actual price action depicts a market in conflict. Only until the price breaks above resistance or below support will it be clear which group has won the battle.

Posted: Friday, May 17, 2019 6:09 AM

Topic: Double Top Reversal

Double Top Reversal

The Double Top Reversal is a bearish reversal pattern typically found on bar charts, line charts, and candlestick charts. As its name implies, the pattern is made up of two consecutive peaks that are roughly equal, with a moderate trough in-between .

Note that a Double Top Reversal on a bar or line chart is completely different from a Double Top Breakout on a P&F chart. Namely, Double Top Breakouts on P&F charts are bullish patterns that mark an upside resistance breakout .

Gillette Co. (G) Double Top Reversal example chart from StockCharts.com

Although there can be variations, the classic Double Top Reversal marks at least an intermediate-term, if not long-term, change in trend from bullish to bearish. Many potential Double Top Reversals can form along the way up, but until key support is broken, a reversal cannot be confirmed. For clarification, we will look at the key points in the formation and then walk through an example .

Prior Trend: With any reversal pattern, there must be an existing trend to reverse. In the case of the Double Top Reversal, a significant uptrend of several months should be in place .

First Peak: The first peak should mark the highest point of the current trend. As such, the first peak is fairly normal and the uptrend is not in jeopardy (or in question) at this time .

Trough: After the first peak, there is generally a decline of 10-20%. Volume on the decline from the first peak is usually inconsequential. The lows are sometimes rounded or drawn out a bit, which can be a sign of tepid demand .

Second Peak: The advance off the lows usually occurs with low volume and meets resistance from the previous high. Resistance from the previous high should be expected. Even after meeting resistance, only the possibility of a Double Top Reversal exists. The pattern still needs to be confirmed. The time period between peaks can vary from a few weeks to many months, with the norm being 1-3 months. While exact peaks are preferable, there is some leeway. Usually, a peak within 3% of the previous high is adequate .

Decline from Peak: The subsequent decline from the second peak should witness an expansion in volume and/or an accelerated descent, perhaps marked with a gap or two. Such a decline shows that the forces of demand are weaker than supply and a support test is imminent .

Support Break: Even after trading down to support, the Double Top Reversal and trend reversal are still not complete. Breaking support from the lowest point between the peaks completes the Double Top Reversal. This too should occur with an increase in volume and/or an accelerated descent .

Support Turned Resistance: Broken support becomes potential resistance and there is sometimes a test of this newfound resistance level with a reaction rally. Such a test can offer a second chance to exit a position or initiate a short .

Price Target: The distance from support break to peak can be subtracted from the support break for a price target. This would infer that the bigger the formation is, the larger the potential decline .

Posted: Wednesday, May 08, 2019 4:29 AM